As the leaves fall…
Happy Friday. Well can we say it is happy with state of the world and economy? We choose to be happy, even if it has been a long week. At least we are officially in Autumn, so that means cooler temps for many of us, pumpkin spice everything, and Halloween decorations. Just a reminder that Halloween candy goes on sale on November 1st. Today’s newsletter is shorter than normal, but holds all the same amount of psychological weight of a normal newsletter….let’s dive in.
—CN & JB
Company Performance (9/15/22 - 9/22/22)
General Economy Update
As expected, the Fed raised interest rates 75 basis points. We can all collectively sigh in both relief and derision now that we got past this milestone - 3 consecutive rises in interest rates at 75 basis points. Given the CPI report last week and the fact that the economy is still adding jobs at an unprecedented rate, this was not too surprising. There are some signs that the economy is slowing, especially in the housing market. On an interesting note, the last month has seen an increase in the number of economists who think we will fall into an official recession - it has increased from less than 20% to around 50%. To me this means it’s still a coin flip, but the Fed is under even more pressure to try and cool the economy juuuuuust enough to avoid that outcome. Given the issues around energy prices and the continued supply chain problems, that “soft landing” is seeming as dim as the daylight in these shorter days.
—CN
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